2024 NFL Draft Buffalo Bills Preview Predictions Part 5

by steve

Here are links to the first four parts of my Bills draft preview

The ideal day 1 would be for the Bills to move out of the first round and have three 2nd round picks or two and a 3rd. Take two 2nd round receivers.

In this scenario the Bills looking around at 28 and the top 4 or even 5 receivers are already gone and there is no round 1 grade on anyone else.

If trading down doesnt come to fruition Is go either Coleman or Worthy. I could live with the white Iowa safety but it would put tremendous pressure on Beane to get WEAPONS on Friday (coleman, franklin, pearsall, worthy).

Worst case scenario is moving 3+ premium picks to draft the 3rd or 4th best WR prospect. No one knows if these dudes are going to be good and the 29% hit rate for receivers in round 1 the last 20 years is scary.

Sure you get 4 years of a cheap contract (the fifth year is gonna be at least $16mil) so you save 20 to 25 mil in cap space vs trading for someone like Aiyuk but Aiyuk is a guarantee you are getting a stud. Drafting the second best Texas or LSU receiver is certainly no guarantee. 

But fo the Bills really care that much about cap space? They just pussed away $30 mil in space on someone to help beat them this season. Cap space is a borderline myth. I dont buy the cheap contract rhetoric, plus it likely wouldnt cost a first for Aiyuk. 

I could stomach moving up 3-5 spots at best for the WR they covet but you cant lose the 2nd round pick.

Other Draft predictions:

QBs dont go 1-4

Adi Mitchell falls out of the first round

No runningback goes til round 3

5 QBs go first round.

Everyine loves what the Bears do and rip the Patriots

2024 NFL Draft Preview Buffalo Bills Part 3

The 2024 draft is tomorrow. 

Here is part 1, the picks and needs

Part 2 random WR takes

And now more misc:

Everyone says this is a deep WR class but is that actually the case? Who the fuck knows but I took a look at the last 4 drafts and a handfull of 7 round mock drafts and came up with these numbers from rounds 1-5:

2023

There were 20 receivers taken in the first 5 rounds. Round by round:

4, 4, 6, 3, 3

2022 

23 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

6, 7, 4, 3, 3

2021

23 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

5, 5, 5, 5, 3

2020

25 receivers drafted rounds 1-5

6, 7, 2, 2, 8

i looked at three 7 round mocks they had an average of 27.3 receivers taken in the first 5 rounds. 

Is that really that much more than the 4 year rolling average? no.

Schefter posted the hit rate or percent of first round positions that signed a second contract with the team that drafted them. Receivers were DFL with only 27% of WRs the last 20 years "hitting" as a first round pick.

Beane better be smart enough to not bet the farm on the 3rd or 4th best WR prospect in round 1.

2024 NFL Draft Buffalo Bills Preview Part 2 WRs

by steve

Here is part 1, Bills needs.

Clearly the Bills are desperate for receivers. Most mocks have 5-7 WRs going in the first round with 3 going top 10. With Brandon Beane having a propensity for foolishly trading up it means the Bills likely wont have any picks on day 2.

So, I looked at WRs from last years class in rounds 3-6:

Round 3

Dell, Hyatt, Tillman, Downs, Michael Wilson and Trey Tucker.

They averaged 36 catches 497 yards and 2.3 TDs.

Round 4

Davis, Jones, and Tyler Scott.

They averaged 13 cstches 99 yards and 0 TDs for the season. Yikes

Round 5 

Shorter, Wicks & Puka.

They averaged 48 catches, 689 yards and 3.3 TDs.

Round 6 had a few decent players, Parker Washington and Trey Palmer.

Based on this info Id say it would be wise to try to keep as many of their 4-6 picks and draft mutiple day 3 receivers. But will Beane allow the board to come to him or will he waste picks and reach for players he has no clue will be good or not.

2024 Buffalo Bills NFL Draft Preview

by steve

The draft is Thursday. Lets preview it:

The Bills picks:

round 1 28

round 2 60

round 4 128

round 4 133

round 5 144

round 5 160

round 5 163

round 6 200

round 6 204

round 7 248

Biggest needs:

WR

WR

Safety

Edge

Center

After the Diggs trade and Gabe Davis departing in free agency the Bills are bereft of talent and bodies at the WR position. At the time I said the trade made zero sense and I stand by that with no step 2 after the move.

Everyone knows trading up is stupid yet Beane always does and is almost guaranteed to do it again Thursday. If he trades this years 2nd or next years first and i might snap. 

Sabres Do Obvious Thing, Fire Shitty Coach

by steve

The surprising thing is the Sabres did the correct thing. They did the thing that no one thought they would do. They did the thing real sports franchises and real NHL teams do. They fired their bad head coach.

 Don Granato was finally fired

Sure, Granato had a contract extension that doesn't even start until next season. But also he was a bad head coach. So he had to be fired.

Believe it or not, its not hard to make the playoffs in the NHL. Sure, everything is difficult for the Sabres to do but for just about every other team ever, its not hard. Every team randomly makes the playoffs every 3 or 4 years.

It is unfathomable that the Sabres have gone THIRTEEN years without making the playoffs. Truly unbelievable. 

There are no kudos or bonus points for Kyvynyn Adams actually doing the thing he had to do. But cmon there is no way he would have done this with out zombie Terry Pegula's blessing or dictate. Who the fuck knows though, we never hear from Terry and likely wont after this.

I don't really have names for a replacement. Pick it out of a hat. The team is fuckin soft, young and used to losing. Go with a tough guy, a hardass. Whip these boys into shape.

Just dont hire Lindy Ruff.

Peace out Donny meatballs, thanks for nothing.

Bills Trade Stefon Diggs, Have No Plan

by Steve

The Bills traded their only NFL caliber outside receiver a month into free agency seemingly on a whim with no pla, no foresight and no clue.

Now only do the Bills give Diggs, a very productive receiver at age 30 to a conference rival but they get nothing in return to help this season. They LOSE an additonal $3 mil in cap space. They lose 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. They lose Allen's best weapon with no obvious replacement.

After Beane's press conference it was clear there is no plan B, there is no part 2 of this trade. Is something like that possible? Maybe but not likely. The Bills have no cap space and a lot of holes to fill. Could they make a move in June after space opens up, sure but that is well after the draft . Options like trading for Brandon Aiyuk or god forbid Tee Higgins might closed.

Everyone knew from day 1 Diggs was an enigma, a possible malcontent and a potential problem. Why would Minny deal him if he wasn't. The trade was great, there were problems but things were fine. But was that extension in 2022 needed? Wise? Clearly not. It was botched, just like Von Miller and Dawson Knox. 

Fine, Diggs wanted out and requested to be traded, allegedly. Who cares? What was he going to be  a distraction? He already was! He wasnt going to sit out and he wasnt going to half ass it. Losing his production, losing the additonal cap space and only getting a 2025 2nd while sending out 2 picks isnt a great return. 

A pick from a future year is widely seen as subtracting a round from it. So saying its a 2nd round pick really means a third round pick. Add in losing this years 6th and next years 5th, which we'll say is equal to a 6th, the value charts put it at pick #18 in round 3 or the 82nd overall pick with a total value of 178 points on the jimmy johnson chart.

The funny thing is a lot of the old media is defending the trade. My guess is because a lot of media members didnt like Diggs. He shunned traditional media, press conferences and decorum. The Bills own media quietly said it out loud! So of course they will paint it in a rosy picture.

The worst part about all of this might be what happens next. The Bills are now clearly DESPERATE to trade up and get a top WR prospect. Does that ever work out? Has Beane ever shown he understands value or outsmarts the draft? Giving up mutiple high picks (next years first and or this years 2nd) to move up only to get the 3rd or fourth best receiver prospect is an ugly possibility. The guy they sell out for then needs to be a stud. Anyone wanna bet thats a slamdunk?

Super Bowl betting odds are based on many things. Potential injuries, leverage, exposure, luck, rubes pouring money into future bets. Because the line hasnt changed much means nothing. Are the Bills and Josh Allen now more or less likely to beat Mahomes? Do we really want to force Allen to (try) and do MORE with less talent around him? Hes already panicky in the playoffs. 

Sure the cap looks better next year and the Bills had to get younger and cheaper and WR but it seems much less likely the Bills win more in 2024 than 2023. Tossing out a year of Allen's prime is a precious thing to lose.

BiG 12 Standings Thru Thurs

after tues wedn thur standings:

thur - 10

coast - 10

feyes & steve - 12

dubs - 13

schrum - 18

wreck - 19

big 12 final points

thur - 20

steve - 17

feyes - 17

wreck - 29

coast - 20

schrum - 23

dub - 28